Return of the Jeet (Stay on target... Part II)

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As part of my daily routine, I read the New York Daily News. Yes, I live in Vegas, but reading the Daily News makes me feel like I'm back home.  Anyway, in reading an article abut Jeter, I came across this paragraph:

And in that respect, he does not talk about any milestones he can still achieve in this last season. He is already the only player besides Willie Mays to have at least 3,000 hits, 250 homers, 300 stolen bases and 1,200 RBI in his career, already the Yankees’ all-time leader in hits, stolen bases and games played. With 120 more hits, he will surpass Hall of Famers Paul Molitor, Carl Yastrzemski, Honus Wagner and Cap Anson into sixth place on the all-time list, and with 74 more runs scored he will surpass Tris Speaker, Lou Gehrig, Alex Rodriguez* and Stan Musial to take ninth on that list.


(Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/madden-derek-keeping-pundits-hustling-article-1.1704786#ixzz2udOlDgcP)

That got me thinking about an blog I wrote a few years ago, Stay on target... Almost there... I made some predictions about the end of Jeter's career. Let's see how close I am.  I predicted he will play till 2014. Jeter announced his retirement in 2014.  Although to be fair, his contract only lasted till 2014 so this was kind of a gimmie.  I predicted 3690 hits for 4th all time.  It looks like he will end up 6th.  Although I'm pretty sure he would've ended up 4th if it wasn't for his injury.

300HR Club.  He's currently at 256.  Doesn't look like he's going to make this one.

400 Stolen Bases.  He's currently at 348.  Doesn't look like he's going to make this one either.

10K At Bats. Yeah, he toppled this in grand fashion in 2012 when he got 683 ABs.  He is starting the season at 10,614.

2500 Games Played.  He passed this one up also in 2012.  2014 starts him at 2602.

He also added another ASG appearance in 2012 to bring him up to 13.  And you know he is going to the 2014 ASG so that will put his career at 14 ASGs.

I did say that he would have one more spectacular season in him.  Looks like 2012 was that year.  I wonder what could have been if not for his injury plagued 2013 season.

Like I've mentioned before, Jeet is a 1st year HoF inductee.  Tom Seaver holds the record for highest vote percentage into the HoF at 98.8%.  I really, really believe that Jeet has a chance at breaking this record also.  I guess we will revisit this in 2019, the first year he will be on the ballot.  I will tell you this, I plan to be there in 2020 when he makes his acceptance speech.

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Stats provided by Baseball-Reference.com

Obsession? Maybe.

*sniff, sniff*

Can you smell it?

*crack!*

Can you hear it?

Oh come on now!  I know you can.  The smell of freshly cut grass and the warmth of the spring sun on your face.  The crack of the bat as the ball is lined past the infield and the roar of the crowd as they cheer their team.

YES! Baseball is here.  (Oh, and coincidentally, Spring is around the corner.)

Yeah, yeah, I know what you’re saying. “Great, here come some more posts filled with Yankee filled nonsense.”  Well, if you are here, what else did you expect? Mark and Mercedes, the morning DJs from a local radio station, 94.1, were talking about obsessions this morning.  Mercedes said she is obsessed with the Yankees because she is watching Spring Training games.  If that is considered an obsession, then I’ve got a full-blown outbreak.  How bad is it?  Let me count the ways…

  • I have a Yankees license plate frame.  Tame, I know, but it gets worse.
  • My Twitter handle, @LasVegasYankee
  • I order the Yankees Yearbook almost every year (when I can afford it.  They are getting expensive).
  • I’ve got all the volumes of Yankeeography on DVD. And I’m constantly watching them.
  • I order the MLB Extra Innings package every season (6 years and counting)
  • I switched from Cox Cable to DirecTV just so I can get the YES Network.
  • I also watch Spring Training games.  But I also watch “Yankee Classics” (reruns of classic games) whenever I can.
  • My original ManCave* was painted Yankee Blue.
  • Yankee Jerseys, got ‘em.  Seven (7) and counting.
  • Yankee Memorabilia? I don’t have that much time to list it all. But I’m pretty sure I’ve got more than the average Yankee fan, but not as much as a hardcore fan.
  • Autographs? Yeah, I got ‘em (Jeter, Rizzutto, Ford to name a few).

Is it bad? I don’t know. You tell me.

(One of several Yearbooks that I own.  This one being the oldest)

_____

* Original Mancave is now a rental home.  Haven't had a chance to set up the Mancave in the new house yet.

JAR (Just Another Rant)

Wow, I knew it had been a long time since I wrote something, but I didn’t realize it’s been over a month. I guess I haven’t had nothing to vent about lately… Except the Yankees not winning the World Series.* Well, contrary to popular belief, the Yankees do not win (or buy as some are apt to say. I’m looking at you Ken) the World Series every year. Let me lay down some knowledge on you.

Looking from the beginning of Y2K (haven’t heard that term in a while) we’ve had 12 World Series. The stats breakdown like this:

  • # of different participants – 15
    • Angels, Astros, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants, Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Rockies, Tigers, White Sox, Yankees.
  • # of multiple participants – 6
    • Cardinals, Giants, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees.
  • # of multiple champions – 3
    • Cardinals, Red Sox, Yankees.

So, that means that in the last 12 years, any baseball fan has had a 50% chance of seeing their team in the World Series. Out of those 15 teams, less than 40% appeared more than once. To top it off, only 20% or World Series participants won more than one championship.

Let’s compare…

NFL

  • # of different participants – 16
    • Bears, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Colts, Eagles, Giants, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, Rams, Ravens, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, Titans.
  • # of multiple participants – 5
    • Colts, Giants, Patriots, Rams, Steelers.
  • # of multiple champions – 2
    • Patriots, Steelers.

So, the football fans had the same chance of seeing their team in the Super Bowl as baseball fans did, 50%. Of those 16 teams, 31% went more than once and 13% won more than one championship.

NBA

  • # of different participants – 11
    • 76ers, Cavaliers, Celtics, Heat, Lakers, Magic, Maverick, Nets, Pacers, Pistons, Spurs.
  • # of multiple participants – 7
    • Celtics, Heat, Lakers, Mavericks, Nets, Pistons, Spurs.
  • # of multiple champions – 2
    • Lakers, Spurs.

Basketball fans only had a 36% chance of seeing their team in the championship game.** From there, 63% of those are repeat teams and 18% won multiple championships. I feel sorry for Western Conference fans. The Lakers, Spurs and Mavs have totally dominated that side of the NBA. But then again, those three teams probably have 90% of Western Conference fans anyway.

NHL

  • # of different participants – 15
    • Avalanche, Blackhawks, Bruins, Canucks, Devils, Ducks, Flames, Flyers, Hurricanes, Lightning, Oilers, Penguins, Red Wings, Senators, Stars.
  • # of multiple participants – 5
    • Devils, Ducks, Hurricanes, Penguins, Red Wings
  • # of multiple champions – 2
    • Devils, Red Wings.

Hockey fans also have a 50% chance of seeing their team in the Stanley Cup. On par with MLB and NFL, 33% were multiple participants with 13% being multiple winners.

Tell you what, let’s put it on a table to make it easier to read…

League
#

 

of teams

in league
# of Champ

 

participants
%
Participants

 

w/ multiple

appearance
%
Participants

 

w/ multiple

champs
%

MLB
30
15
50%

6
40%
3
20%

NFL
32
16
50%
5
31%
2
13%

NBA
30
11
36%
7
63%
2
18%

NHL
30
15
50%
5
33%
2
13%

So what does all this prove? Honestly, I totally forgot the whole point of this. I just started looking at numbers and… oh yeah! I remember now.

So, what does all this prove? This proves is that, unless you are a NBA fan, your team has 1 in 2 chance of making it to the respective leagues championship game. Once there, they have a pretty good chance of winning it all, 60% or higher. Also, unless you are a NBA fan, if your team made it to the finals, they have a 34% +/- chance of going back to the championship game within a few years. And, if it wasn’t for the Cardinals, multiple championship winners would be the same in all sports except, you guessed it, basketball.***

Money doesn’t buy championships as many Yankee haters would have you believe. I believe there is parity in all major sports except the NBA. Yeah, I know the Yankees have more Championships than any other professional sports team, but that’s only because they’ve been around for over 100 years. Let’s take a look at basketball. There have been 62 championship games, in which more than half have been dominated by two teams, the Lakers and Celtics. Heck, the Celtics went on a run from 1957 to 1969 in which they won 11 of 13 and an amazing 8-in-a-row win streak. Not even the Yankees could manage that.

Yeah, I just convinced myself (again) that baseball is the greatest of all professional sports. Baseball is a true team sport where strategy is involved, it takes the entire team to win (unlike football where a QB, RB, WRs and half decent offensive line are all you need), one person can’t carry a team (What are the Bulls of the 90s without Jordan?), and the rules are easy to understand (blue line, red line… I’ll never understand hockey).

Show me one person that can name every single person on a 45 man (ok, maybe just half) football roster, and I can show half a dozen that can name everyone on a 25 man for multiple years. How about rattling off basketball stats? Maybe give me a dozen hockey players that are household name? Yeah, not happening to often is it?

I’m not hating on other sports. I enjoy watching football, basketball and hockey. All exciting games, but I’ll always be a baseball nut.

I miss baseball…

Spring training can’t get here soon enough…

 

Late,

JV

_____

 

*Yeah, you might say they didn’t even make it to the World Series and I say Semantics. The fact is, 29 other teams didn’t win the World Series. So there.

** Couldn’t the NBA think tank come up with something more than just NBA Championship Game? MLB has the World Series, NFL has the Super Bowl, and NHL has the Stanly Cup. NBA Championship Game is so… blah. Just saying.

*** True, the Cards won just as many as the Yankees and the BoSox (2) but who else am I going to blame? There is no way I’m laying any blame on the Yankees and if I start to blame the BoSox then I’ll be accused of being a biased Yankee fan with no respect for the BoSox. Fact is that the Cards have a higher World Series winning percentage (75%) than the Yankees (50%) since 2000.

 

 

Dodger Dogs... Baseballs got 'em! 'Nuff Said!

 

What a finish!

And this is what it all boils down to.  Yeah, 161 games were played but none of that mattered.  In the greatest finish since The Play (UC-Stanford ’82), The Catch (49ers-Cowboys ’82), The Collapse (Yankees-Red Sox ’04)… Actually, scratch that last one. Nobody needs to be talking about that.  So, 161 games played and there are still 4 teams playing for 2 spots.  In all honesty, I was hoping the Ray and Sox would both win.  A 1-game playoff is always exciting (1978 anyone?) and it would have allowed the Red Sox at redemption.  Yeah, redemption since almost every 2011 MLB Prediction at the beginning of the season had the Red Sox winning the Division. So, not only do they not win the Division, they can’t even muster enough to force a 1-game playoff and at least nab the Wild Card.

I watched the games.  I was on the edge of my seat for the last few innings of both games.  Yes, I was cheering for the Rays and the Sox.  My wife thought I had lost my mind.  When my family reads this, they will probably think I’ve lost my mind.  Maybe I have, but the excitement was overwhelming.  And since we were in public, I couldn’t yell and cheer out loud. Talk about frustrating.  I’m glad I had my Twitter account to vent with.

Watching the game, I wonder. Did the Yankees throw the game in the end?  Did they give the Rays the opportunity to mount the comeback?  Yeah, it sounds crazy but walk with me for a minute on this.

1)      Attitude – Fact, the Yankees clinched.  Since there were no types of season records in play, this was a “meaningless” game.  When in a situation like, most people automatically change their attitude and take things down a few notches. 

2)      Starters – The game started with only 5 regular starters in the initial lineup.  By the end of the 7th, 4 of those had been replaced.

3)      Relief – Girardi had already stated that he wouldn’t be using any relievers in the finale.  So, everyone knows that, no matter what, Mo won’t be in the game.  That’s sure to give opposing batter a boost in confidence.

4)      Exhaustion – Let’s face it, 162 games is a lot of games.  When you don’t clinch until 10 days before the end of the season, you are going to be tired.  Then you still gotta play at 100% to clinch the Division.  Yeah, very tiring.

5)      Opposition – Finally, you have to decide who would you want rather face in the ALDS.  Red Sox or Rays?  Yeah, I’d rather face the Rays because the Red Sox were really dialed in on the Yankees this season.

There you go.  Evidence, flimsy but evidence all the same, that the Yankees could have thrown the game.  But no matter, in the end it was one of the most exciting finishes to the season that I’ve seen in a long time.  I enjoyed watching each and every deciding game.

Congratulations Rays.  See you next season Sox.

(Associated Press)

Big Papi - "See you in the playoffs."

Manny - "No you won't."